Majority of Germans predict early end to Merz government

Only around one in four Germans believe Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition government will survive until the next federal election due in early 2029, according to a YouGov poll released on Sunday.

The survey of 2,202 eligible voters, commissioned by dpa, found that just 23% expect the alliance between Merz's conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) to serve its full term.

By contrast, 13% believe the coalition will collapse before the end of this year, while 44% expect it to break apart prematurely in 2027 or 2028. Another 20% did not express an opinion.

Confidence in the government's survival is also waning among supporters of the coalition parties themselves.

Among voters backing the CDU/CSU, 53% expect the government to collapse before 2029, compared with 32% who believe it will last its full term.

SPD supporters are similarly pessimistic, with 46% expecting an early collapse and just 34% predicting the coalition will survive until the next election.

The coalition has been mired in crisis since September's regional elections, in which both the conservatives and the SPD suffered heavy losses while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made historic gains.

Disagreements over economic and social reforms, as well as how to deal with the growing popularity of the Left party and the AfD, have further strained relations between the coalition partners.

CDU official confident coalition will survive

CDU general secretary Franziska Hoppermann, however, dismissed the prospect of an early collapse.

Asked by Munich newspaper Abendzeitung whether the coalition would last until 2029, she replied in the affirmative, stressing that "everyone is aware of their responsibility."

Hoppermann pointed to the challenges facing the government, including the need for major welfare reforms after two decades without significant changes, strained public finances and a difficult security situation.

She also highlighted an upward revision to Germany's economic growth forecast as a positive sign.

"What we are doing is having an effect," she said.

YouGov surveyed 2,202 adults between October 16 and 19. The results were weighted to be representative of Germany's adult population.