Study: German population will fall from 83.3 million to 81.8m by 2045

The German population will decline to around 81.8 million by 2045 from 83.3 million currently, according to a study presented by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development on Tuesday.

The institute said that more than two-thirds of Germany's 400 municipalities and independent cities are expected to experience population decline, with almost 200 regions still growing just a few years ago now likely to shrink.

The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) puts the current population at around 83.3 million.

The institute and the Wüstenrot Foundation investigated the population for the fifth time. The nationwide assessment system incorporates 26 indicators covering demographics, the economy, education, and social conditions.

Catherina Hinz, director of the Berlin Institute, said the key question was not whether Germany was growing or shrinking, but where.

Manuel Slupina of the Wüstenrot Foundation described the overall decline as moderate but noted significant regional differences. While major cities are likely to continue growing in the future, some rural regions are expected to shrink substantially.

The study found that 12 of the 20 regions with the lowest overall ratings were in eastern Germany, compared with just five in 2019.

There are also major differences in western Germany. The south-western state of Saarland is expected to continue losing population, while cities such as Frankfurt and Dusseldorf are expected to grow.

Among the 16 states, Bavaria is pulling further ahead at the top: 18 of the 20 highest-ranked districts and independent cities are located in Bavaria, up from 12 in 2019.