Exit polls: Historic loss for Merz's CDU as AfD gains in German votes

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives are on course for their worst-ever performance in a state election, exit polls showed on Sunday, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) making major gains in two votes.

The elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin further pile pressure on the beleaguered Merz, whose political future has been the source of intense speculation as his approval ratings have plummeted in recent months. 

Exit polls by broadcasters ARD and ZDF showed Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) fighting to secure the 5% of the vote needed to win seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliament, well below the party's historic low of 9% set in Bremen in 1951.

Two weeks after winning a resounding victory in nearby Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is projected to finish top again in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with around 37-38% of the vote, more than doubling its share since the last election in 2021. The anti-immigrant party is just ahead of the governing Social Democrats (SPD) on around 36%.

In Berlin, Merz's conservatives are likely to lose their hold of the city-state, with exit polls showing The Left - a successor to the socialist party that governed the former East Germany - well ahead on around 25% to the CDU's 20%. The AfD is further back with between 13.5% and 16% of the vote, up from 9.1% in 2023.

Initial projections based on partial vote counts are expected within the hour.