Germany's Merz braces for bad news as AfD targets more election gains

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces another humbling at the ballot box on Sunday as two eastern states head to the polls, two weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a resounding victory in Saxony-Anhalt.

The votes in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are the last in a bumper year of five German state elections that have exposed widespread public frustration with Merz's coalition government and prompted serious speculation whether the chancellor might be forced to step down.

The debacle for Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) earlier this month in Saxony-Anhalt - where the AfD soared to almost 44% of the vote, while the CDU collapsed to 17% - intensified rumours within conservatives ranks about a rare "chancellor swap," while making headlines around the world at the far right's advance in Germany.

CDU fears worst-ever election result

A further humiliation for the CDU could follow on Sunday in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Latest polls have put the party on around 7%, dangerously close to the 5% threshold needed to win seats in parliament. If confirmed, this would mark the CDU's worst result in any of Germany's 16 federal states or at the national level since World War II.

Crashing out of the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliament - albeit not a state where the CDU has traditionally excelled - would represent a nightmare scenario for the CDU and leave Merz under massive pressure.

Merz, however, has done his best to stave off speculation regarding his future, stressing after the Saxony-Anhalt election that "giving up is not an option for me."

He received support on Wednesday from the premiers of the eight states led by the CDU, who called for stability and said they would work "together with the chancellor" to help solve people's problems. 

A woman on a mission to stop the AfD

Like Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is a thinly populated eastern state that has struggled to deal with the effects of German reunification in 1990, provoking discontent and facilitating the rise of the populist AfD.

Having led in the polls for months, the anti-immigration party is hoping to capitalize on its momentum from Saxony-Anhalt to hold off a stirring centre-left comeback by incumbent Premier Manuela Schwesig of the Social Democrats (SPD). 

Schwesig has positioned herself as the only viable candidate to stop the far right, terming herself "die Frau gegen Blau" ("The woman against blue") in a reference to the AfD's party colours. 

Distancing herself from the national SPD, the junior partner in Merz's unpopular federal coalition, she has managed to close the gap to the AfD to just two points in latest polling, not least due to her high personal approval ratings.

Schwesig, who has governed Mecklenburg-Vorpommern since 2017, has vowed to prevent a second far-right victory in two weeks, stressing that "it does matter whether a second state falls to the AfD or not."

Under her leadership, childcare for pre-school-aged children has become free in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, while the state has seen stronger economic growth over the past five years than the country as a whole, according to official figures, even though the rural region lacks major industry.

However, Schwesig's existing coalition with The Left, a successor to the socialist party that governed the former East Germany, faces an uphill battle to secure a majority of seats in the state parliament in Schwerin.

If it fails to do so, Schwesig could be reliant on the Greens passing the 5% threshold to form a three-party coalition with The Left. 

CDU fights to retain Berlin

In Berlin, meanwhile, Merz's party is in a three-way race with the AfD and The Left after a campaign marked by two scandals for the governing CDU-SPD coalition. 

Incumbent CDU Mayor Kai Wegner was forced to abandon his re-election effort after being dogged by a long-running controversy over a tennis match he played in January, while large parts of the city endured an electricity blackout in freezing temperatures. 

His successor as the party's lead candidate, the state's finance minister Stefan Evers, has managed to keep the CDU's chances afloat despite his late entry to the race. The party is polling around 20%, narrowly behind The Left and just ahead of the AfD.

Just as in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the most likely scenario following Sunday's vote appears to be a three-way coalition between The Left, the SPD and the Greens. 

But the last week of the campaign delivered a political bombshell when news emerged that the SPD's lead candidate, Steffen Krach, is facing an investigation over alleged corruption.

Despite having his home and offices raided, Krach has denied any wrongdoing and committed to stay in the race, stressing that he has "nothing to hide."

However the post-election calculations work out in both state parliaments, the clear narrative at the national level is likely to be the AfD's continuing rise, at the expense of the centre-right CDU. 

Another large defeat for the CDU could raise further questions about the infamous "firewall" against cooperation with the far right - and fresh doubt over whether Merz is the right man to lead the country until the next national elections in 2029.