Hard-left just in front of conservatives ahead of Berlin poll

Ahead of the election to Berlin's state parliament on September 20, a poll released on Friday put The Left party narrowly ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

In the survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen conducted for public broadcaster ZDF, The Left, led by its top candidate Elif Eralp, stands at 23% while the CDU, with their lead candidate Stefan Evers, are two points behind at 21%.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would be the third-strongest force with 17%, closely followed by the Greens with 16%. The Social Democrats (SPD) are at 10%. 

The data was collected from Monday to Thursday, meaning partly before news emerged on Wednesday of investigations into the SPD's top candidate Steffen Krach.

The populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is below the 5% threshold required to enter the state legislature, with 3% in the poll. 

If accurate, the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition that rules the city would no longer have a majority. But other coalitions would be mathematically possible, such as an alliance of The Left party, the Greens and the SPD - which has existed before in Berlin - or one of the CDU, the Greens and the SPD.

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen surveyed 1,100 people for the poll. 

Tight race 

Three to four of the strongest parties have been relatively close for months, according to Berlin election polls. 

An Infratest dimap poll for broadcaster ARD published on Thursday puts The Left at 21%, narrowly ahead of the CDU with 20%, while the AfD is seen as gaining 18% of the vote and the Greens 16%. 

A week ago the institute Insa saw the CDU narrowly in front with 20% ahead of The Left's 19%, with the AfD at 18% and the Greens and the SPD both at 15%.

There is also a neck-and-neck race over which of the three candidates voters would like to see as mayor of Germany's capital and largest metropolis.

The CDU's Stefan Evers leads with 25% in the ZDF poll, followed by The Left's Eralp with 23%. Only 9% back the Greens' Werner Graf.

Incumbent not running

Mayor Kai Wegner dropped his bid to lead the CDU ticket around two months ago. He did so in response to a debate about false information regarding his crisis management during a major power outage that struck parts of the city in January.

Weakening party loyalties and more last-minute voting decisions make it harder for polling institutes to assess the data collected.