State election in Germany spurs hope in Moscow, concern in Kiev

As voters head to the polls in Germany's eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, observers in Russia and Ukraine are watching closely - and hoping for very different outcomes for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

"Moscow wants the AfD to win outright," Vladislav Belov, a Russian expert on Germany, told dpa on Thursday. 

The AfD has never participated in a ruling coalition in Germany's 16 states or its federal government, as all other democratic parties refuse to work with it, a policy infamously known as the "firewall."

For the first time in its 13-year history, however, it stands a serious chance of bypassing the firewall and leading a state government in Saxony-Anhalt.

Russia wants "the firewall to be breached," said Belov, who heads the centre for German studies within the Institute for Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. 

Moscow is not counting on an explicitly pro-Russia stance from the AfD, but on a course that would serve what it sees as Germany's national interest - and not that of Ukraine, he argued.

A victory for the party in Sunday's election would also represent a defeat for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a strong supporter of Ukraine against Russia, Bulov added. 

In Kiev, a victory for the AfD is a worrying prospect. The party has campaigned against German aid for Ukraine, and it favours resuming purchases of Russian gas. 

The AfD's branch in Saxony-Anhalt is seen as particularly pro-Russian: its manifesto openly calls for the resumption of school exchange programmes with Russia, and the deputy regional chairman, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider, recently made headlines after an interviewer spotted a Russian army mug in his office.

Former Ukrainian foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin warned in a commentary for media outlet Liga.net about the consequences of the election in Saxony-Anhalt.

"We could find ourselves in a reality where, by the end of the year, we are dealing with different players in Germany," he wrote. 

The widely read Ukrainska Pravda news website has also voiced concern that the "main engines of European politics" could fail. It is important for Kiev, the outlet said, "that Germany remains not only one of the largest donors, but also Europe's political leader in supporting Ukraine."