Elections

Poll: AfD lead slipping in German state two weeks ahead of election

3.09.2026, 13:34

Two weeks ahead of the election in Germany's north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the governing Social Democrats (SPD) are catching up with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), a poll showed on Thursday. 

The infratest dimap survey, commissioned by public broadcaster NDR, found the SPD with 32%, just three percentage points behind the AfD. 

The poll is set to take place on September 20, two weeks after nearby Saxony-Anhalt votes in an election that has generated huge attention as the anti-immigrant AfD could lead a state government for the first time. 

The AfD has held a steady lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for months too, and a separate survey from the Forsa polling institute released on Wednesday had the party at 37% compared to the SPD's 28%. 

SPD Premier Manuela Schwesig is fighting hard to retain her post, despite dissatisfaction with the federal government in Berlin, in which the Social Democrats are the junior partner to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservatives.

In third place in the latest Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll were The Left with 11%, with Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) fourth with 8%. The figure would be the party's worst-ever showing in a German state election. 

Further behind were the Greens with 5% - the minimum needed to win seats in the state parliament - ahead of the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) with 4%. 

The poll suggests Schwesig's current coalition with The Left would not have enough support for a majority in the state parliament, possibly paving the way for a three-way partnership with the Greens.