Far-right AfD at 43% ahead of key German state election next month

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling at 43% less than four weeks before the regional parliamentary election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, according to an opinion poll released on Wednesday.

Conducted by Berlin-based research firm pollytix and commissioned by campaign organization Campact, the poll put Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at 23%. 

The Left party followed with 13%, the Social Democrats (SPD) with 7% and the Greens with 5%, the minimum needed for parliamentary representation.

The populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) did not meet the 5% threshold, with 4% and 2% respectively.

The results suggest the AfD would not be able to govern alone in Saxony-Anhalt, as it would not have its own majority in parliament.

The small party factor

Polls for the state have been fluctuating by a few percentage points for weeks. According to the latest figures from the Insa institute, the AfD, led by top candidate Ulrich Siegmund, is currently at 42%, while the CDU, led by state Premier Sven Schulze, is at 22%.

In an Infratest dimap poll, the AfD, classified in Saxony-Anhalt as confirmed right-wing extremist, was most recently at 41%, with the CDU at 24%.

Who can shape politics in Saxony-Anhalt depends on how many parties - besides the AfD, CDU and The Left - enter parliament. The SPD has been just above the 5% threshold for weeks.

Potential among undecided voters?

Around 13% of voters have also not yet decided which party they want to vote for on September 6.

Campact sees "considerable potential for the democratic parties" in this group, board member Felix Kolb told dpa. "Nothing has been decided yet." It is not automatic that the AfD will form the next government in Saxony-Anhalt, he added.