Germany's AfD takes 20-point lead ahead of crucial Saxony-Anhalt vote

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has extended its polling lead to 20 percentage points in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the anti-immigrant party is seeking an unprecedented absolute majority in elections on September 6.

An INSA poll released on Monday showed the AfD up one point to 42%, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) plunging to 22%.

The AfD has never participated in a ruling coalition in Germany's 16 states or its federal government, as all other mainstream parties refuse to work with it, a policy infamously known as the "firewall."

Despite the party branch in Saxony-Anhalt being branded a confirmed case of right-wing extremism by domestic intelligence, it stands a serious chance of securing an outright majority in the election, depending on whether several minor parties fail to achieve the 5% threshold needed to win seats in the state parliament in Magdeburg.

One of those is the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which has vocally campaigned against another CDU-led government in the state and is emerging as a potential kingmaker, reaching 5% in the INSA poll. 

"Only if the BSW makes into the state parliament can the next term of office of the CDU premier be prevented," said the party's lead candidate, Thomas Schulze. "The AfD will not make it alone."

The BSW, which splintered off from The Left in early 2024, has not committed to supporting an AfD-led government, however. 

Schulze is instead calling for a model of shifting majorities and a "cross-party premier" in the state parliament, aiming to "reduce polarization." 

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund has rejected the idea, insisting that Saxony-Anhalt needs a "stable government."

The state is currently governed by a coalition between the CDU, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP). 

The INSA poll showed both the CDU's coalition partners locked in a battle to hit the 5% threshold, with the SPD on 6% and the FDP on 4%, alongside the opposition Greens on 4%.

The Left, meanwhile, were third on 13%. The far-left party is ideologically poles apart from the CDU, but could be forced to support incumbent Premier Sven Schulze in its effort to keep the AfD out of power.