Expert council casts doubt on German government emissions projections

German government projections on greenhouse gas emissions are overly optimistic, a council of experts tasked with monitoring climate policy said on Monday.

This applies particularly to the energy and building sectors, the Council of Experts on Climate Change said in its report published in Berlin, which included 2025 emissions data and projections through 2026.

The council confirmed calculations by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) showing emissions fell by 0.1% in 2024 from the previous year, but said the agency’s projections through 2030 were too optimistic.

"The assumptions underlying the calculations in particular for the energy and buildings sectors need to be updated," council chairwoman Barbara Schlomann said. "For both sectors, we assume that actual emissions are likely to be higher than reported," she added.

Germany’s Climate Change Mitigation Act sets annual caps on greenhouse gas emissions for the 2020-2030 period.

While government projections indicate the targets can still be narrowly met, the council said the emissions budget is likely to be exceeded by between 60 and 100 million tons of CO2 equivalent.

The council was even more pessimistic about the period after 2030.

"With regard to the political significance of the review findings, the Expert Council rates the identified budget overshoot through 2030 as marginal, but warns of a growing discrepancy between projection data and targets from 2030 onwards," it said.