Poll: Far-right AfD takes 15-point lead ahead of key German state vote

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) commands a clear lead four months before elections in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt that could potentially see the far-right, anti-immigrant party win an absolute majority in a regional parliament for the first time.

The AfD, whose regional chapter in Saxony-Anhalt is classified as an extremist organization by domestic intelligence, topped a poll on Thursday with 41%, up by 2 percentage points from last September and far ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) on 26%.

The Left party, which traditionally sees strong support in the former East Germany, is polling in third place at 12%, according to the survey by pollsters Infratest Dimap commissioned by a group of local outlets including public broadcaster MDR.

The Social Democrats (SPD), the junior coalition partner at national level, are languishing at 7%, while the Greens and the Free Democrats would fail to clear the 5% hurdle needed to take seats in the regional parliament.

The vote in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 will be closely watched as it could mark the first time the AfD will get to lead a state government. 

Should the party fail to receive an absolute majority, however, it is likely to be relegated to opposition again, as all other parties have ruled out cooperating with the far right.

September will also see two more states hold regional votes, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in the north-east, and Berlin, as a bumper election year in Germany draws to a close.

The Greens managed to pull off a surprise win in the first vote of the year, narrowly beating Merz's conservatives in Baden-Würrtemberg, a prosperous south-western state where they have long built a strong following.

Just weeks later, the CDU scored a win of their own, beating the SPD in their long-time stronghold of Rhineland-Palatinate, also in south-western Germany.

While support for the AfD has been comparatively lower in the former West Germany, the far-right party has seen gains in all regional votes so far this year, and is expected to do so again later this year, including in Berlin.

The race in the German capital on September 20 is expected to be very tight, with the CDU commanding a narrow lead at 20%, according to new polling on Thursday.

Four parties are in a tight head-to-head for second place, with the AfD polling at 17%, followed by the SPD, Greens and the Left at around 16% each, a Civey survey commissioned by the Tagesspiegel daily shows.

If the polling is right, the current coalition in the Berlin state government comprising the CDU and SPD would no longer have a majority, with a centre-left alliance of the SPD, Greens and the Left, which has previously governed the German capital, a likely scenario.