Most Germans expect coalition to collapse before 2029, poll shows

Most Germans expect the country's governing coalition to collapse before the next scheduled election in 2029, according to a YouGov poll, underscoring mounting pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The survey found that 55% of respondents do not believe the coalition between Merz's conservative bloc and the centre-left Social Democrats will last a full term, while 25% expect it to endure. About 20% of respondents were undecided.

Even among supporters of the governing parties, more respondents expect an early breakup than not.

Only 10% of those surveyed said the government had performed well so far, while 69% rated its performance as poor.

Asked about alternatives, 29% said a minority government would be preferable to the current coalition, compared with 23% who disagreed. Nearly half of those asked did not express a view.

A minority government could emerge if Merz were to dismiss Social Democrat ministers or if they resigned, leaving his conservative bloc to govern with shifting parliamentary support. Merz has ruled out such a scenario.

The poll was conducted on Monday among 2,190 adults living in Germany.

The findings come as the coalition marks its first year in office. Recent polls show the two governing parties no longer command a majority, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has overtaken the conservatives in several surveys. Merz has come under particular pressure as his approval ratings have declined.