Study: Trade tensions to damage German export growth over next decade

Trade wars and rising protectionism are set to significantly slow the growth of German industrial exports, according to a study by consultancy Deloitte.

Exports are expected to grow by 1.3% annually by 2035, down from 2.1% over the past decade, the study said.

The slowdown is largely driven by weakening demand in China and the United States, previously key growth markets. German exports to the US are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year, while shipments to China are expected to fall by 1.7%.

The projected drop in US trade is less severe than previously anticipated. A March 2025 study had forecast an annual decline of 3.2%.

In contrast, trade within Europe is expected to strengthen. France already overtook China as Germany's second-largest trading partner in 2025, and exports to the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are likely to surpass those to China within a few years, according to Deloitte.

Exports to Poland are also seen expanding by nearly 3% annually, with the country expected to overtake China as a destination by 2035.

Higher growth potential is seen in markets such as India, Brazil and Australia, where export growth is projected at between 3.9% and 4.7% per year.

The study said Germany and the European Union would be well advised to pursue trade agreements to support export growth as the country adapts its industrial model to shifting global trade dynamics.

As an industrial nation, Germany needs a new business model, Deloitte said, with recent agreements such as those with India and Mercosur offering grounds for optimism.