Germany's AfD leads poll at 37% ahead of September regional vote

The anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party holds a commanding lead in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as voters across several regions are set to cast their ballots in a bumper election year.

The AfD topped a representative survey by pollsters Forsa in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 37%, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD), who lead the current state government, with 23%.

The SPD's junior partner, The Left party, stood at 11%, behind the Christian Democrats (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz at 13%, according to the poll commissioned by the Ostsee-Zeitung newspaper and published on Thursday.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is a largely rural coastal state that was part of the former communist East Germany, and state governments have predominantly been led by the SPD since reunification.

It is one of five German states to elect new regional governments in 2026, alongside Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatine, Saxony-Anhalt and Berlin.

The performance of the AfD, which came in second in national elections last year, will be watched particularly closely, with the party expected to make major gains across the board.

However, all major parties have ruled out cooperating with the AfD, potentially leaving the states with fragile and fragmented coalitions.

Germany's domestic intelligence agency classified the AfD as a confirmed right-wing extremist group last year, a label that the party is challenging in court.

Support for the AfD rose by two percentage points in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern compared to a January poll commissioned by public broadcaster NDR, while the SPD lost two points.

The SPD won the last state election in 2021 with a landslide of 39.6%, while the AfD received 16.7%, meaning the party might be on track to more than double its past result if polls are correct.

The vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is scheduled for September 20.