Study: Germany meets 2025 climate target but emissions drop slows

Germany met its climate target in 2025, but greenhouse gas emissions fell less than in 2024, a study has shown. The research by think tank Agora Energiewende, published on Wednesday, warned that the pace of climate protection is slowing.

The findings raise concerns about the country meeting its 2030 goal of cutting emissions by 65% compared with 1990 levels. Agora calculated that from 2026, Germany will need to reduce an average of 36 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually — four times the reductions achieved in 2025.

According to the think tank, Germany emitted 640 million tons of CO2 equivalents last year. Other greenhouse gases are converted into CO2 for comparison. This represents a 1.5% decline from 2024 and a 49% drop since 1990.

Not all 2025 data are yet available, and some figures are based on projections. Agora notes that weak economic activity, particularly in energy-intensive industries, helped curb emissions, while US and Chinese trade policies also weighed on output.

Renewable energy generation rose about 2%, mainly due to solar power, contributing to lower emissions. Photovoltaics became the country's second-largest electricity source, ahead of gas and coal, while wind remained the top source.

Julia Bläsius, director of Agora Energiewende Germany, said gains from renewables will not fully offset setbacks in transport and buildings. Emissions in both sectors rose in 2025, partly due to a cold start to the year that increased oil and gas consumption for heating.

According to the calculations, Germany met its national 2025 goals but missed EU targets by around 30 million tons of CO2. If the shortfall continues, the government could need to buy additional emissions rights from other countries, potentially costing up to €34 billion by 2030 ($39.8 billion).