Nearly half of Germans believe coalition won't last until next poll

Almost half of people in Germany do not believe that the current coalition between the mainstream centre-left and centre-right parties will hold together until the next election expected in just over three years' time, according to a poll published on Monday.

According to the survey conducted by the opinion research institute YouGov on behalf of dpa, 49% believe that Germany is headed for early elections.

Some 17% of respondents expect the coalition to break up as soon as next year.

Some 32% believe that the coalition led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz will survive 2026, but will not last the entire election period.

Only about a third (34%) believe that the coalition between the conservative bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD) will last until the next election in 2029.

The coalition ended up with a 12-seat majority in the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, after the election on February 23.

However, the coalition partners have lost popularity since then, with the conservatives polling 24-27% and the SPD between 13-14%.

With five state elections looming in 2026, only 9% of respondents believe that the coalition will see fewer disputes next year, according to the YouGov survey.

A total of 2,116 respondents across Germany took part in the survey between December 12-15.