Merz's conservatives lead German poll but coalition options narrow

A poll released one day before the German election has conservative leader Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU bloc leading on 29.5% of the vote, but at risk of requiring two coalition partners to form a viable government.

The centre-right alliance - made up of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Bavaria-only Christian Social Union (CSU) - topped research institute INSA's final pre-election poll on Saturday, falling 0.5 percentage points from the previous survey.

Merz is the overwhelming favourite to replace Olaf Scholz as German chancellor following Sunday's early elections, but he will almost certainly require support from at least one more party to reach a majority in the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament.

The poll - conducted for the Bild tabloid - had the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) unchanged on 21% and 15% respectively.

Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck's Greens were down 0.5 percentage points to 12.5%, while The Left climbed by the same margin to 7.5%.

Merz has ruled out working with the AfD, but his chances of forming a two-way coalition with either the SPD or Greens will likely hinge on whether two minor parties hit the 5% threshold usually needed to enter the Bundestag.

The INSA poll had the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) on 4.5% and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 5%.

If either does hit 5%, the seats in the Bundestag could be splintered, further complicating the picture for Merz's hopes of forming a stable government.